Sunday, 22 July, 2018

Oil complex rallies despite China/US trade tension - Oil

WTI Crude Oil Weekly August WTI Crude OilMore
Lindsey Cook | 22 June, 2018, 16:16

Meanwhile, Nigeria's Bonny Light crude oil has maintain an worldwide price of $73.44 per barrel, higher than the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) basket price of $73.35 per barrel.

According to one OPEC source who spoke to Reuters, the Saudi proposal of a 1.5-million-bpd production boost was "just a tactic", to have wiggle room to negotiate a compromise with other OPEC members and settle on a lower number for the increased production, possibly between 500,000 bpd and 700,000 bpd.

USA sanctions will contribute to Iran and Venezuela potentially losing nearly 30 percent of their oil output next year, requiring extra supplies from the group's Gulf members, the International Energy Agency said last week.

US President Donald Trump said in a statement on Wednesday the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is to blame for high oil prices. Output in Saudi Arabia jumped by 85,500 barrels a day, but was partly offset by production outages in Nigeria, Venezuela and Libya. But U.S. production has not reached the maximum rates in the past year and in the first half of this year.

Retail prices of petrol and diesel are ruling at Rs 75 a litre and Rs 68 a litre amid the global surge in crude prices.

Opec together with a group of non-Opec producers including Russian Federation started withholding oil supplies in 2017 to prop up prices.

Commerzbank commodities analyst Carsten Fritsch said that given big differences in the positions of OPEC members, the Friday meeting was likely to be tough. "A meaningful increase in long-haul flows from some of the key OPEC exporters would go a long way in turning the crude tanker market around, especially since it will impact the physical market as well as provide a boost to the all-important market psychology".

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World oil demand in 2018 is forecast to grow by 1.65 mb/d, broadly unchanged from previous month's assessment, to stand at 98.85 mb/d.

Tokyo ended 0.8 percent down, while Singapore sank more than one percent, Seoul dropped 1.3 percent and Manila tumbled 2.5 percent.

Oil prices fell on Thursday as crude producers appeared to be nearing a deal to increase production at an OPEC meeting in Vienna on Friday, but pared losses after a report of a large stockpile draw at a key storage in the United States.

Chinese tariffs on United States energy exports would affect roughly one of every four barrels of oil the USA now ships to overseas refiners and, if ultimately imposed, would spark a significant shift in global crude flows, analysts said Monday. China said it would impose tarrifs on a variety of USA goods, including crude and gasoline, in response to President Donald Trump's $50 billion levy on Chinese imports. However, the group remains divided, with Venezuela and Iran against an increase.

Non-OPEC members including Russia, Oman and Mexico also agreed to cut 558,000 bpd off their production to stabilise the market.

Underscoring how hard the discussion about a production increase will be, Zanganeh said that Trump's comments have cast doubt on the prospect of a deal. Well, we have to wait until the price reaches the 50 SMA, don't we?

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