Monday, 18 June, 2018

Middle East Tension Could Spike Prices Higher if It Impacts Supply

Another Year of Oil Cutbacks Possible as Oil Producers Eye Long Term Alliance Oil prices rally on supportive comments
Lindsey Cook | 21 February, 2018, 09:16

MCX Crude oil futures ended up 0.82% at Rs 3940 per barrel in last session.

Futures in NY climbed as much as 1.7 per cent, extending last week's 4.2 per cent advance.

Suhail al-Mazroui, energy minister for the United Arab Emirates, told media of the alliance formation, saying OPEC was urging its members to build oil capacity buffers to temper any wild upswings in price due to the weak USA dollar this year.

Oil is struggling to regain the highs of January after a sell-off in global equities seeped into crude markets earlier this month. United States production, however, edged higher to 10.27 mbpd.

Helping to limit gains are general concerns over rising US production that may be offsetting the OPEC-led group's attempts to limit production, reduce the global supply glut and stabilize prices.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) is set to state its forecast regarding the U.S. crude supply on Wednesday. "Rising shale oil production will prove a headwind for the oil price for a while yet".

The increase in US production is not "a blip", Brouillette said.

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However, earlier this week both Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation admitted publicly that the metric to measure stockpiles is flawed and must be replaced - which implies that any claim made by OPEC or other parties about the true state of the crude market is questionable at best.

The most active gold futures contract on the Comex market in NY touched a high of $1,358.60 an ounce in midday trade, up more than 2pc or almost $30 an ounce compared to Tuesday's settlement after inflation data in the USA came in higher than expectations. As a result, consensus forecasts now stand at $62 per barrel, it said, which is 13 percent higher than the $54.80 average price for Brent crude achieved in 2017, but which is lower than the current price.

The US dollar dropped back on Wednesday and is now down 12pc over the past year against the country's major trading partners.

Selling pressure could resume if hedge fund investors decide to continue liquidating their previously created long positions.

Retail and institutional investment in gold-backed exchange traded funds (ETFs) continues to grow.

Non-OPEC stocks outside North America are also believed to decline this year and the next.

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