Monday, 23 July, 2018

OPEC oil output up by 42000 b/d

Oil slips towards $69 ahead of US supply report OPEC oil output up by 42000 b/d
Charlie Simmons | 19 January, 2018, 02:09

U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark crude oil futures posted a two-sided trade on Wednesday before closing higher.

OPEC said USA shale producers lowered breakeven costs between 2015 and 2017 but now service companies are raising rig and labor costs so breakeven prices are rising.

ANZ bank said on Monday oil prices had recently risen "on the back of data continuing to show the market is tightening". There are many reasons for concern, but the top of the list is how USA production will respond.

In the current case, however, portfolio managers seem to be gambling oil prices will break up into a new, higher trading range before eventually correcting. However, the surge in prices means that delegates gathering in the Man's capital should decide how to get out of quotas.

"Getting too far above US$70" can both stimulate new supply and affect the economy, Jeff Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said in a television interview.

OPEC, Russia and Saudi joined forces in late 2016 against the threat posed by a boom in US shale oil, which had flooded markets and sent prices crashing, and assembled a coalition of 24 nations that would cut their own production.

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Oil reserves surplus is diminishing rapidly and there are increasing signs of the dangers that high prices pose for OPEC, according to Bloomberg.

But the strategy gained strength in the second half of the year.

Prices responded, with Brent crude futures climbing to US$70.05 on January 11, the highest since December 2014. While this gives the producer countries some reassurance, it also has the corresponding problem.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will post its data on Thursday at 11 a.m. EST (1600 GMT).

OPEC believes daily oil production from non-OPEC countries will grow 1.15 million barrels, up 160,000 barrels from its previous projection, on higher expectations for output in the United States and Canada.

Citigroup Inc., Societe Generale SA, and JMorgan Chase & Co. predict OPEC may start loosening their oil cut intervention by June when they formally meet again. The EIA predicts that by November 2019 the US could hit 11 million bpd, surpassing Russian Federation as the world's largest producer. At the same time, the pressure to change the strategy will probably ease in the coming weeks with the depreciation of oil. We're going to need to see aggressive hedge fund liquidation in order to fuel a much needed correction. The bold actions taken by both OPEC and non-OPEC oil producing countries address both the medium- and long-term challenges facing the oil market and help put it on a road to sustainable stability."The consequences of the "Declaration of Cooperation" have exceeded even the most optimistic of predictions".

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